Dave (the editor)
On Wednesday 27th February, there were a number of votes in Parliament relating to the tortuous process of trying to ‘deliver’ Brexit: Brexit: back where we started. The mainstream media in the UK is becoming ever more obsessed with the shenanigans in the Westminster bubble as MPs defect from both the Tories and Labour as the party political system heads into meltdown. The problem is that when the hacks and commentators obsess about what goes on in Westminster at the expense of taking a long hard look at what’s going on in Brussels and the rest of the EU, we get a distorted picture of events and developments.
There has been talk from a number of politicians and the commentariat about the possibility of an extension to Article 50. The scheduled date for a meaningful vote on Brexit in Parliament is the 12th March. The effective deadline for asking for an extension is the EU summit which takes place on the 21st March. To put it bluntly, it’s squeaky bum time!
A short extension is one option that could happen if by some fluke, MPs change their minds and support the Withdrawal Agreement that May was given by Brussels. This would be a technical extension to allow Parliament to pass the legislation necessary to ensure a relatively smooth exit. Such an extension would have to run to late May (before the European elections polling day) or the start of July (the first sitting of the new European Parliament). This is pretty much the only situation where a pissed off Brussels would be minded to grant a short extension. As things stand at the moment, the chances of MPs voting the Withdrawal Agreement through are remote.
There has been some excitable talk about a lengthier extension period of 21 months. It’s been suggested that in the event of the Withdrawal Agreement being voted down on 12th March, a lengthy extension to Article 50 in a bid to find a solution to the impasse could be an option.
For an extension to be granted, it has to have the unanimous assent of all of the remaining 27 EU nations. If the UK is granted a lengthy extension, it would then be participating in the European elections at the end of May. Current indications are that a lot of Brexit supporting MEPs would be elected: The Brexit Death Spiral (J.J. Patrick – Byline – 25.2.19).
If Brussels and the EU 27 did for some unfathomable reason grant the UK a 21 month extension to Article 50, they would be seriously undermining their already shaky project. It’s not just the UK electing a slew of Brexit supporting MEPs that would rock the boat. The indications are that an increase in the number of populist inclined, Eurosceptic MEPs from mainland Europe is expected. A combination of Brexiteer MEPs and their continental populist colleagues would gleefully grasp the opportunity to wreck the EU from the inside while being paid a nice fat salary as they’re doing it! Somehow, we don’t think Brussels and the EU 27 would seriously contemplate an extension that could seriously shaft their project.
As for May revoking Article 50, it would be political suicide. It would see the emergence of a Brexit party that potentially could take enough votes from both Tories and Labour to enable them to get their hands on the keys to 10 Downing Street at any subsequent election. Seeing as the EU Referendum in 2016 was initiated by the then PM, David Cameron, in a bid to solve the Tories Europe dilemma, somehow we can’t see May effectively destroying the party by revoking Article 50.
So we’re back to either the MPs having a change of heart and giving a last minute approval to the Withdrawal Agreement or facing the prospect of a chaotic no deal exit from the EU. Bear in mind that exiting with no deal is the default option, it’s not something that can be voted against or for. It’s an event that will inevitably happen with the failure to approve the Withdrawal Agreement. If a mere oik like me can get my head around this, the question is, why are so many politicians and commentators failing to grasp this?
As we hope we’ve made clear in previous posts, as anarchists we’ve no brief for either Remain or Leave: Brexit…some clarifications… However, the posturing of the UK and the constant trips by May to Brussels in a pathetic bid to try and wear down the EU indicates the continuing existence of an arrogant post imperial hubris. One that needs to be eliminated if we’re ever going to get genuinely radical and progressive politics onto the agenda. Judging by the increasingly belligerent nationalistic rhetoric coming from too many politicians, too much of the media and last, but by no means least, from the far right street mobs, we’ve got our work cut out to achieve this.
Now, if like me, you’ve been following the ‘progress’ of the UK government in ‘preparing’ for the chaos of a no deal exit, you won’t be filled with confidence. Which is why we’re plugging the resources listed below in a bid to offer some advice to people and communities wanting to adequately prepare for what’s coming. As we get closer to March 29th, we’ll be taking a closer look at the political and social consequences of no deal.
Resources
Getting Ready Together – James Patrick
What (And Why) I’m Stockpiling For Brexit – Jack Monroe – 15.11.18
